Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in July 2022 remained flat month on month (m/m) to $272.6M, following the 0.1% decrease in July. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 45.2% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 0.8% for the month but are up 12.6% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders decreased by 1.1% but were up 17.2% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders increased 0.2% m/m and increased 8.0% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 0.3% m/m as orders increased 12.5% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 0.4% m/m and have increased 10.9% y/y. Durable goods shipments was up 0.7% m/m and are up by 11.3% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was up 1.7% m/m and are up 11.2% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $272.6M in August, a 3.9% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.