Advance Durable Goods Orders

Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in October 2022 increased 1.0% (m/m) to $277.3M, following the 0.3% increase in September. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 51.7% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased by 2.1 for the month but are up 13.1% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased by 2.1% but were up 18.9% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders decreased 0.5% m/m and increased 7.3% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 0.3% m/m as orders increased 13.9% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 0.1% m/m and have increased 9.2% y/y. Durable goods shipments was up 0.4% m/m and are up by 11.1% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was down 1.1% m/m and are up 11.2% y/y.

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Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $277.3M in October, a 5.1% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.

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