Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in December 2022 increased 5.6% (m/m) to $286.8M, following the 1.7% decrease in November. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 52.8% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased by 15.8% for the month but are up 13.6% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased by 16.7% but were up 19.7% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders increased 0.1% m/m and increased 6.3% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 0.7% m/m as orders increased 13.7% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 0.2% m/m and have increased 7.5% y/y. Durable goods shipments was up 0.5% m/m and are up by 10.7% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was up 0.9% m/m and are up 11.5% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $286.8M in December, a 10.5% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.