Advance Durable Goods Orders

Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in March 2021 increased by 0.5% month on month (m/m) to $256.3M, following the 0.9% decrease in February. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 1000+% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 3.5% for the month but are up 18.4% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders decreased by 1.7% but were up 12.7% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders increased 1.6% m/m and increased 10.9% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 5.5% m/m as orders increased 8.3% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 1.2% m/m and have increased 10.2% y/y. Durable goods shipments increased 2.5% m/m and are up by 10% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments increased by 1.6% m/m and are up 5.0% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $256.3M in March, a 25% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.



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