Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in June 2022 increased by 1.9% month on month (m/m) to $272.6M, following the 0.8% increase in May. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 51.5% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 0.3% for the month but are up 12.5% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased by 0.8% but were up 16.6% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders increased 0.3% m/m and increased 11.4% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 1.5% m/m as orders increased 12.1% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 1.1% m/m and have increased 12.4% y/y. Durable goods shipments was up 0.3% m/m and are up by 11.7% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was down 0.5% m/m and are up 11.1% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $272.6M in June, a 5.8% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.