Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in September 2022 increased 0.4% (m/m) to $274.7M, following the 1.3% increase in August. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 47.2% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased by 0.4% for the month but are up 12.7% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased by 2.1% but were up 18.3% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders decreased 0.5% m/m and increased 7.6% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 2.2% m/m as orders increased 13.8% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 1.7% m/m and have increased 10.0% y/y. Durable goods shipments was up 0.3% m/m and are up by 11.3% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was down 0.6% m/m and are up 11.1% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $274.7M in September, a 10.9% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.