Advance Durable Goods Orders

Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in April 2023 increased 1.1% (m/m) to $283.0M, following the 3.3% increase in March. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, down 13.9% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased by 4.6% for the month but are up 2.7% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased by 3.7% but were up 7.5% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was negative 0.2% m/m and increased 0.3% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were down 0.1% m/m as orders increased 7.8% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 0.5% m/m and have decreased 2.3% y/y. Durable goods shipments are down 0.7% m/m and are up by 4.3% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments are down 1.0% m/m and are up 7.0% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $283.0M in April, a 6.6% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.



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