Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in December 2023 was flat (m/m) to $295.5, following the 5.5% increase in November. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, up 11.6% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 1.1% for the month but are up 9.5% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders decreased by 0.9% but were up 12.0% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was up 0.6% and increased 0.8% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 0.4% m/m as orders increased 4.4% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 0.6% m/m and have decreased 1.2% y/y. Durable goods shipments was down 0.3% m/m and are up by 3.1% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was down 1.0% m/m and are up 6.1% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $295.5M in December, an 3.6% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.