Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in January 2024 was flat (m/m) to $276.6, following the 0.1% decrease in December. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, down 23.9% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 15.0% for the month but are down 6.3% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders decreased by 16.2% but were down 6.4% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was down 0.3% and increased 1.8% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were down 0.4% m/m as orders increased 0.9% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 1.7% m/m and have increased 1.0% y/y. Durable goods shipments was down 0.9% m/m and are up by 1.6% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was down 2.4% m/m and are up 1.6% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $276.6M in January, an 2.1% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.