Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in February 2024 was up 1.4%(m/m) to $277.9, following the 6.9% decrease in January. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, down 4.3% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased by 1.9% for the month but are down 0.9% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased by 3.3% but were down 1.2% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was up 0.5% and increased 3.2% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 1.5% m/m as orders increased 2.1% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 1.4% m/m and have increased 2.6% y/y. Durable goods shipments was up 1.2% m/m and are up by 3.4% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was up 2.5% m/m and are up 4.2% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $277.9M in February, an 1.4% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.