Advance Durable Goods Orders

Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in May 2024 was up 0.1%(m/m) to $283.0, following the 0.2% increase in April. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, down 19.2% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased by 0.5% for the month but are down 4.4% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased by 0.6% but were down 3.5% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was up 0.4% and increased 2.1% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 1.5% m/m as orders increased 2.9% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 1.3% m/m and have increased 1.0% y/y. Durable goods shipments were up 1.2% and are up by 2.3% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was down 0.1% m/m and are up 1.9% y/y.

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Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $283.0M in May, an 0.1% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.



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