Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in July 2024 was up 9.9%(m/m) to $289.6, following the 2.2% decrease in June. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, down 34.4% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased by 34.3% for the month but are down 7.0% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased 34.8% but were down 6.9% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was down 0.2% and increased 1.4% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were down 2.6% m/m as orders increased 2.4% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 0.9% m/m and have increase 0.2% y/y. Durable goods shipments were up 1.2% and are up by 1.4% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was up 1.1% m/m and are up 1.9% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $289.6M in July, an 1.9% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.