Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in August 2024 was flat (m/m) to $289.7, following the 9.9% increase in July. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, down 31.0% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders decreased 0.4% for the month but are down 5.8% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders decreased 0.8% but were down 6.1% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was down 0.2% and decreased 1.3% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were up 0.2% m/m as orders increased 1.4% y/y. Orders for primary metal were up 0.2% m/m and have decreased 0.1% y/y. Durable goods shipments were down 0.5% and are up by 1.7% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was down 1.6% m/m and are up 2.7% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $289.7M in August, an 2.0% increase y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.