Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in October 2024 was up 0.2(m/m) to $286.5, following the 0.4% decrease in September. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, down 30.2% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased 0.5% for the month but are down 4.8% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders increased 0.5% but were down 5.1% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was up 0.1% and increased 1.4% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were down 0.4% m/m as orders increased 1.7% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 0.7% m/m and have increased 0.4% y/y. Durable goods shipments were down 0.6% and are up by 1.8% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was down 1.1% m/m and are down 4.8% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $286.5M in October, flat y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.