Advance Durable Goods Orders: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods in December 2024 was down 2.2(m/m) to $276.1, following the 2.0% decrease in November. The always-volatile nondefense aircraft orders, down 36.2% y/y, influenced this trend significantly.

The Advance Report on Durable Goods (DG) is based upon data reported from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments. Units may be divisions of diversified large companies, large homogenous companies, or single-unit manufacturers in 89 industry categories.

Capital goods orders increased 2.0% for the month but are down 2.6% on a y/y basis. Transportation orders decreased 7.4% but were down 6.9% vs. a year ago. Leaving out transportation business, orders was up 0.3% and increased 1.4% y/y.

Motor vehicles and parts were down 0.2% m/m as orders increased 1.4% y/y. Orders for primary metal were down 0.6% m/m and have increased 0.4% y/y. Durable goods shipments were up 0.6% and are up by 1.8% vs. a year ago. Capital goods shipments was up 0.9% m/m and are up 1.8% y/y.

Figure 1 shows the history of DG orders from 2010 to present. New orders totaled $276.1M in December, down 6.2 y/y.

At Gerdau, we routinely monitor advance durable goods orders since it provides a good read on the current health of the US manufacturing economy and its probable short-run future.