ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index moved down 1.4% (m/m) to 50.2 for October 2022; this value is stronger than the forecast of 50.  The new orders sub-index scored a 49.2. Overall, the ISM manufacturing index is strong, while the global economy is beginning to strengthen again following shutdowns throughout Covid-19.

The ISM manufacturing index is based on surveys of 300 purchasing managers in 17 industries. The survey is a diffusion index calculated as a percent of responses. A value of 50 is neutral, while less than 50 denotes contracting manufacturing activity and greater than 50 denotes expanding activity.

Figure 1 breaks down the composite index and sub-indexes. The backlogs sub-index was 45.3 this month, while the inventories sub-index was 52.5.

Eight manufacturing industries reported growth in October, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The 10 industries reporting contraction in October compared to September, in the following order are: Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

“We have seen a general pullback in available capital budgets from our customers, and that is having a significant impact on our sales in the fourth quarter.” [Machinery]

At Gerdau, we closely monitor the ISM manufacturing index since it is an excellent barometer of the present strength, as well as a window on the likely short-run future, of U.S. manufacturing.