ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index moved up 3.6% (m/m) to 49.1 for January 2024; this value is weaker than the forecast of 50. The new orders sub-index scored at 52.5. The reading continued to point to a contraction in the manufacturing sector, although at a much softer pace, as demand moderately improved, output remained stable, and inputs are accommodative.

The ISM manufacturing index is based on surveys of 300 purchasing managers in 17 industries. The survey is a diffusion index calculated as a percent of responses. A value of 50 is neutral, while less than 50 denotes contracting manufacturing activity and greater than 50 denotes expanding activity.

Figure 1 breaks down the composite index and sub-indexes. The backlogs sub-index was 44.7 this month, while the inventories sub-index was 46.2.

The four manufacturing industries reporting growth in January are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The 13 industries reporting contraction in January — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Primary Metals.

“December sales were very strong but slower for the first part of January, as was expected. We expect to see steady sales going forward, if the (U.S. Federal Reserve) continues to hold rates and suggests a rate cut in the future.” [Machinery]

At Gerdau, we closely monitor the ISM manufacturing index since it is an excellent barometer of the present strength, as well as a window on the likely short-run future, of U.S. manufacturing.