ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index moved up 1.2 points month on month (m/m) to 61.1 for September 2021; this value is stronger than the forecast of 50. The new orders sub-index scored a 66.7. Overall, the ISM manufacturing index is strong, while the global economy is beginning to strengthen again following shutdowns throughout Covid-19.

The ISM manufacturing index is based on surveys of 300 purchasing managers in 17 industries. The survey is a diffusion index calculated as a percent of responses. A value of 50 is neutral, while less than 50 denotes contracting manufacturing activity and greater than 50 denotes expanding activity.

Figure 1 breaks down the composite index and sub-indexes. The new orders sub-index was highest this month at 66.7, while the employment sub-index was lowest at 50.2.

The 17 manufacturing industries reporting growth in September — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The only industry reporting a decrease in September compared to August is Wood Products.

“Delivery and availability of raw materials, primarily carbon steel, are becoming more and more difficult to source. This has resulted in delaying order deliveries. Computer numerical control (CNC) machining services are at a premium; it’s difficult to get the deliveries needed to complete jobs. Traditional in-house machining now has to be outsourced due to a lack of experienced machinists. All this has had a negative impact on production throughput.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

At Gerdau, we closely monitor the ISM manufacturing index since it is an excellent barometer of the present strength, as well as a window on the likely short-run future, of U.S. manufacturing.