ISM Manufacturing Index: The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index moved down 1.0% (m/m) to 48.0 for July 2025; this value is weaker than the forecast of 50. The new orders sub-index scored at 47.1. Overall, the ISM manufacturing index is strong, while the global economy is beginning to strengthen again following shutdowns throughout Covid-19.

The ISM manufacturing index is based on surveys of 300 purchasing managers in 17 industries. The survey is a diffusion index calculated as a percent of responses. A value of 50 is neutral, while less than 50 denotes contracting manufacturing activity and greater than 50 denotes expanding activity.

Figure 1 breaks down the composite index and sub-indexes. The backlogs sub-index was 46.8 this month, while the inventories sub-index was 48.9.

The seven manufacturing industries reporting growth in July — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; and Primary Metals. The 10 industries reporting contraction in July — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

“Sales softening more than usual during the summer. Negotiations with non-U.S. manufacturers are strained as we are reluctant to issue POs for deliveries three or more months into the future with prices that include current tariffs.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

At Gerdau, we closely monitor the ISM manufacturing index since it is an excellent barometer of the present strength, as well as a window on the likely short-run future, of U.S. manufacturing.